July 14, 2014
Matt Erickson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Crop progress and condition report this afternoon. 

CORN – Down 2
September corn futures had a rough 5 days last week, finishing down 31 cents on the week. Follow through weakness from the bearish June 30th stocks/acreage report coupled with the increased carryout numbers on Friday’s USDA WASDE report led to lower prices. The USDA report on Friday showed an increased in ending stocks for the 2013-2014 crop of 100 mln bushels. They also increased the expected production for the 2014-2015 crop and raised projected carryout from 1.726 bln to 1.8 bln bushels. Technically, we are looking to find some sort of consolidation or support for corn. If one were to pick the next rally to point we may look in the $4.05-$4.10 area where we gapped lower over the long 4th of July weekend.

August beans were the loser last week as the anticipated “tight” old crop supply proved to be not so tight according to Friday’s report. The USDA raised ending stocks for the 2013/2014 crop 15 mln bushels to 140 mln bushels and raised the 2014/2015 projected ending stocks number to 415 mln bushels. Looking at new crop, November beans traded to new contract lows on Friday as we try to digest the increased acres and +70% rated crop. Technically, we look for the next support level for November beans at $10.25 SX14. Below is a look at the 6-10 day precipitation outlook.

WHEAT – Kansas City up 1, Minneapolis up 2
The selloff continues in wheat as we lose another 44 cents in Minneapolis Sept futures and 51 cents in Kansas City Sept futures last week. The USDA increased 2014-2015 carryout to 660 mln bushels from 574 mln bushels in June. The U.S. spring wheat crop looks good with conditions likely to improve as we inch closer to harvest. French wheat is rated at 70% good/excellent, up one point for the week.