October 18th, 2013
Drew Johnson
Grain Originator

The Government is back. USDA is up and running. Reports will start getting back to normal, at least for the next three months. The October WASDE reports have been canceled. This will make the November WASDE report very interesting.

Corn as of 8:05 am 2 higher

Corn is being held into place by rumored excellent exports, but larger yields. Some expect a total of 88.2 million bushels have been shipped in the last two weeks. A heck of a lot better than this time last year. Yields however still expected to be better than predicted. 6-14 day forecasts still have below normal temps and below average moisture. Informa is going to estimate 2014 acres mid morning. Technically we see some resistance at 450/460 futures.

Revenue Insurance Price discovery is at $4.41.

Soybeans as of 8:05 am 5 higher

Soybeans took off yesterday on expected strong export sales. Expected exports are around 105.1 million bushels in the last two weeks. We traded through the $13 futures mark overnight, but could not close above it. Trade is still expecting to see a yield increase in soybeans. That will keep traders somewhat in check until government reports start flowing back into the market. Harvest is also expected to pick back up soon, and this will also put pressure on the beans. Brazil and Argentina planting/growing conditions are considered favorable at this time. Informa is going to estimate 2014 acres mid morning. We are hitting some resistance at 1300 futures, with the next at 1325.

Revenue Insurance Price discovery is at $12.8175.

Wheat as of 8:05 am Spr. Wheat 11 higher.     Win. Wheat 12 higher.

Wheat is leading the charge and bringing both corn and beans with it today. Wheat export inspections were at 25.29 million bushels. Argentina wheat is at $13 dollars/bu. This is causing other countries to look for different sources for wheat. Japan took 4.1 million bushels of US wheat, while South Korea took 845,000 bushels. Possibility of a railroad strike in Canada. If this should happen, it may give US wheat a boost. Ukraine and Russia seedlings are starting to improve, but production is still expected to be lower. Technically, spring wheat resistance at 760 futures, while winter wheat is at 764 futures.