August 6th, 2013
Drew Johnson
Grain Originator

Corn as of 8:00 am. Sep. 3 higher.   Dec. 1 lower

Pressure remains on the corn as favorable weather forecasts prevail. Informa’s estimate, yesterday, has total corn production at 14.14 billion bushels with a 158.6 yield. This, right now would lead to a 2.1 billion bushel carryout, a 16.8% carryout to use ratio and sub $4 corn. If you are trying to find a bullish reason in this market it would be that the corn is behind. A frost scare that could turn things around. Problem is, that has to happen first. Trade will continue to watch the calendar as we get closer to frost dates. Crop condition report out yesterday has the corn crop improving by 1%. 64% vs. 63% last week. Somewhat of a surprise, but the western belt has been receiving rain. Those numbers are ahead of average for this time which is at 57.8%.   China has some dry spots, maybe they need more corn? Export inspections yesterday were at 15.1 mln bushels vs. 20.3 mln last year. Brazil is exporting more corn this year than the US. Technically speaking for the Dec contract we have broken through support at $4.66. It looks like we are heading for $4.00 with some support around $4.25.

Soybeans as of 8:00am Nov. 6 lower 

Soybeans a little lower this morning. Informa’s estimate yesterday has total production at 3.26 billion bushels with a 42.7 yield. They are also estimating a reduction of 500,000 acres of harvested ground in the Aug 12th USDA Report. These numbers are setting up another year like this one, where we could potentially have a very tight carryout as long as exports hold. Export inspections yesterday only at 1.3 mln bushels vs. 12.9 mln last year. Trade is watching eventual announcement of the 2014 biodiesel mandate. Other than that, the weather has been favorable and that will keep pressure on the soybean markets. Technically speaking support at $11.50

Wheat as of 8:00am. Spr. Wheat 1 higher.   Win. Wheat. 1 higher

Wheat is following corn. They cannot seem to find their own market. Exports inspections were up yesterday. 25.4 mln vs 21.2 mln last year, but the trade just ignored that information. Informa’s estimation of world wheat stocks at 706 mmt. 8 mmt above the USDA’s projections. Some are looking for a larger US spring wheat estimate from the USDA on Aug 12th. Technically speaking winter wheat is holding its own at $6.90 on the board. Spring wheat is setting new lows with support at $6.85.