July 15th, 2013
Lynn Miller – Grain Originator, Grebner
CORN: 7:30 August -7 1/2 : New Crop -7 1/4
REMARKS: Expiration of the July contracts sure wreaked havoc on the markets Friday. We traded lower all night as weather and the new crop balance sheet have pretty much trumped everything else in the corn world. As focus turns to the new crop, improved weather conditions and expectations for minimal stress at pollination we will probably see the December fall. The last 10 days of July are seen as the most critical for tasseling and pollination this year with a weather forecast that is looking pretty optimal. The trade is now focusing on a 150+ type yield. The feeling is mixed as for crop conditions tonight. Expectations are for a decrease in condition on the western side of the belt (Kansas, Nebraska) and improvement to the East leaving us to wonder the net result will be up or down. For the first time since December of 2005 the funds are net short corn 10,000 contracts. On the technical side, all three indicators are tipped to the bear side with support at $5.22 the September and $4.91 the December.
SOYBEANS: 7:30 August +1 3/4 : New Crop -4 3/4
REMARKS: Just as in corn, expiration of the July contract threw beans into a bad downward spiral on Friday. Typically in tight years we would see this as the crescendo; however, with no new crop supplies available before late September I look for August to hold relative value for now with 14 days to convergence. Trade seems to have mixed feelings on the new crop market with a robust demand picture on tight stocks. There are some questioning the idea of record yields this year. However, as you look across the country these beans are improving. Technically, all three indicators are bearish the August and the November with support at $14.04 and $12.42 respectfully.
WHEAT: 7:30 Minneapolis -5 1/2 : Kansas City -9 1/4
REMARKS: Wheat traded lower all night as, with the largest losses in the Soft Red Wheat market. Winter Wheat harvest moves right along with many areas wrapping up. Look for wheat to follow corn. Technically, all three indicators are bearish the Minneapolis with support at 7.66 while the Kansas City shows all three indicators on the bull side with the stochastics wanting to turn downward. There should be solid support here at the $6.73 level with resistance quite a ways up there at $7.80.