April 19, 2013
Producer Marketing Manager
Corn: As of 7:45 – Up 3
May corn closed 16 cents lower yesterday, weakening the inverse to the July futures. According to research firm Shanghai JC Intelligence CO, Chinese feed demand could be down 20% for Q2 as retail poultry volume has lost nearly 70%. Latest update on bird flu reports 83 confirmed cases and 17 related deaths. The storm system moving across the nation dumped widespread moisture from Arkansas to Michigan yesterday.
Soybeans: As of 7:45 – Steady, NC Down 2
Beans closed 8 cents higher yesterday as decent export sales boosted the market. A weather consultant says there is a pattern change around the 26th for a dry out in the Southern and Eastern belt and the NOAA May outlook shows below normal rain for that same area. The good news is the drought conditions in the western corn belt continue to improve. Technically, indicators and momentum are bullish on old crop soybeans.
Wheat: As of 7:45 – MPLS Steady, KC Down 4
As mentioned yesterday, export sales were good at 20.3mb as we quickly approach the end of the marketing year on May 31. Other than that we watch weather...... So in light of the cold weather all the way into TX, what does the market think of the HRW crop? If you look at the KC July/Dec spread you can gauge what the market is thinking about the health and potential size of the growing crop. As you can see in the chart below, the market is paying 28 cents (+5/month) to carry wheat from harvest to Dec. To me, it doesn’t look like they are concerned about production issues in HRW at this point.