June 12, 2012
Shelley Fuerst
Grain Originator

USDA S/D Report this morning: 
• Corn ending stocks for 2011/12=851 (no change from May)
• Soybean ending stocks for 2011/12=175 (down from 210 in May)

Topsoil deficiencies are becoming more prevalent with large declines within the past week.  Iowa declined 20 points to 66% short, Illinois declined 24 points to 78% short, Missouri 87% short, Ohio 56 % short, Indiana 74% short and Wisconsin 56% short.  Some rains forecasted but overall deterioration continues.

Corn:  As of 7:35 Down 5
USDA left ending stocks unchanged for both this year and next.  Ethanol grind reported up 50 million bushels and exports down 50 million bushels for a net even change.  Crop progress reports were released Monday afternoon pegging corn down 6 points, the second largest late June weekly decline ever. Corn rated 66% good to excellent vs. 69% rating last year.  Corn rating plummeted in several states with Illinois down 10 points, Indiana down 11 points and Iowa down 8 points.  Compared to last year, Iowa corn is rated 17 points worse than last year with Illinois 13 points below last year.  States rating better than last year are Minnesota, SD, ND, Ohio and Michigan growing only 24% of the national corn crop.

Soybeans:  As of 7:35 Up  15 old, 8 new
USDA dropped this year’s ending stocks number by 35 million bushels by increasing exports and domestic crush.  Crop progress report also indicated a decline with the overall soy rating dropping a sharp 5 points, the second largest drop ever matching 2007 and 1998.  Soy rated 60% good to excellent vs. 67% last year comparing to the worst ever rating from 2008 when the crop was 57% and the final yield was 39.7 bpa.  Several states with declining ratings include Illinois down 10, Iowa decreasing 9, and Ohio down 8.  Crops rated marginally better in SD, ND, Arkansas, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin with these states contributing only 26% of the national crop.

Wheat:  As of 7:35 Mpls Down 4, KC up 2
USDA lowered ending stocks for current year wheat by 40 million bushels.  With 35% of the winter wheat crop harvested vs. 9% average, the crop gained 1 point from last week coming in at 53% good to excellent.  Traders possibly reducing winter wheat production by 44 million bushels with slightly larger export predictions.   Spring wheat rating down 3 from last week now posting a 75% good to excellent.   Weather could be supportive, but it is unlikely wheat prices have a lot of potential ahead of them as long as world supplies are deemed adequate.