January 10, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
US Quarter Stocks Report out at 11 am on Thursday, January 12th.
Corn: 2 lower
Corn export inspections, reported yesterday, came in at 34.5 million bushels. This was up from 21.7 million bushels a year ago at this time. Total inspections, for the 2016-17 export year, are at 706 million bushels. This is up 78% from last year, and 17% ahead of USDA’s projections. The Brazilian crop agency, Conab, is now predicting Brazil will produce 84.5 million metric tons of corn versus their 83.8 mmt prediction in December. This new prediction is 17.9 mmt more than last year’s production. Looking at the technical side of things we see, in the chart below, the 20 day and 50 day moving average have converged and are showing support at $3.55. We see some small resistance at $3.60 with the $3.65 futures level as the max point of resistance for this trend. If one is looking to make some sales, this would be the time to do so as most cash prices have improved $.20 to $.30 cents since harvest.
Soybeans: 3 lower
Big turnaround in the soy complex yesterday as beans managed to find a dime, before the close, on good export inspections numbers. Speaking of export inspections. 53.5 million bushels were reported yesterday. This is above the 45.7 million bushels a year ago at this time. Total inspections, for 2016-17, are at 1.265 billion bushels. Eighteen percent ahead of this time last year, and about the 6% demand increase from USDA. The Brazilian crop agency, Conab, released new production numbers this morning. They are thinking Brazil will raise 103.8 million metric tons of soybeans this year, which is an increase from their December forecast of 102.4 million metric tons, and is 8.4mmt higher than last year’s production. If this would come true, this would be a record. Technically speaking we are still holding support, for March futures, at $9.94. Nov futures is holding support around $9.80.
Wheat: MPLS is steady. KC is 4 lower
Wheat also had another strong day yesterday. Export inspections were neutral, but the big jump came from a reported sale of 4.4 million bushels of hard red spring wheat to and unknown destination for the 2016-2017 marketing year. The southwest Plains remain dry and are also lending to this nice up-trend.