November 4, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
The next USDA report is next Wednesday, November 9th. Be sure to have your targets working!
CORN (Down 2)
The board continues to slip as a 2bln plus carryout seems to be highly probable even in a best demand and worst yield scenario. Ethanol grind was good for the week along with great export sales of 58 mln bushels. This was about 20 mln bushels higher than trade expectations! The surprising good export numbers were aided by increases in sales to Japan, Mexico and Cuba. The USDA announced a new sale to Mexico of 432kMT for this year and South Korea booked 136kMT of optional origin corn for this marketing year as well. Nearby support for December futures is found at $3.365 with resistance found at $3.59. Below is a look at the precipitation outlook for the next 7 days, favorable to finish the last leg of harvest.
SOYBEANS (Down 2)
We are now about 45 cents off the recent highs in nearby beans as an upward yield adjustment in next week’s USDA report seems possible. Demand remains strong as the USDA reported 92 mln bushels of new export sales this past week which was a good 50 mln bushels higher than trade expectations. The USDA announced a new sale yesterday of 120kMT to unknown for this marketing year. FC Stone puts U.S. bean yield at 52.8bpa, which is up slightly from last month. Informa came out with their new yield estimates on Thursday at 52.4bpa. Informa’s bean crop at this point is estimating the bean crop at 80 mln bushels larger than the last USDA report. Nearby support for November futures is found at $9.695 with resistance at $10.20.
WHEAT (Minneapolis Unchanged, Kansas City Down 2)
Both Minneapolis and Kansas City markets are about 20-25 cents off recent highs as row crop harvest looks to finish up this week. Wheat export sales were poor coming in at 8.6mln bushels, the trade was looking for a number closer to 20 mln. We need 12 mln bushels a week to reach the USDA forecast. If you have wheat bushels in the bin and are wondering quality, be sure to contact Wheat Growers to line up a bin probe today! Nearby support for Minneapolis December futures is found at $5.01 with resistance at $5.38. Nearby support for Kansas City December futures is found at $4.04 with resistance at $4.21.