July 13, 2016
Matt Erickson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Ethanol numbers out this AM

CORN (Up 9)
Corn looks to have a short term bottom as we are now 20 cents off the low set after the June 30th stocks report. The USDA report on Tuesday showed 15/16 corn carryout at 1.701 bln bushels and 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.081 bln bushels. Both of these numbers were below average trade guesses and supported futures. Yield was kept the same at 168 bpa, which the trade was expecting. World stocks were slightly bearish, coming in on the high side of expectations at 206.9 MMT. Brazil corn production was lowered yesterday as Argentina’s production estimate remained nearly the same. Nearby support for Sept futures is found at $3.39 with resistance at $3.6375.

Beans made the biggest move Tuesday as the USDA reported 15/16 carryout at 350 mln bushels and 16/17 carryout at 290 mln bushels. The 15/16 carryout came in about 20 mln bushels below the average trade guess which helped fuel the rally. World soybean ending stocks were fairly neutral at 72.17 MMT, which was up slightly from the last report. The soybean production estimate for Argentina was raised slightly, adding to the worlds stocks number. Nearby support for August futures is found at $11.13 with resistance showing up at $11.49.

WHEAT (Minneapolis Up 3, Kansas City Up 4)
Wheat managed to finish positive Tuesday even with a larger 16/17 production number and a greater than anticipated carryout number of 1.105 bln bushels. World wheat stocks were the bright spot coming in below average trade guesses at 253.7MMT. LDP’s still loom for HRW as East river counties are around 6 cents away. Winter wheat production increased 8% from the June forecast at 1.63 bln bushels. Based on the data given yesterday we are assuming a 59 bpa average on HRW, which would be a record if held true. Spring wheat production is forecast at 550 mln bushels, which is down 8% from last year.