May 31, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
Today is the last day for the Market Base Builder Program
Steady trade in the overnight as traders await the first corn crop ratings this afternoon. The latest vegetative index suggests that 65% of the corn crop is good to excellent. This would be a little below average. Planted acres, for last week, are expected to be around 90% complete. July corn posted its highest close in ten months on Friday at $4.13 futures. Weather forecasts are expected to turn drier and cooler in June for much of the plains. Fundamentally we could still see a large corn crop this fall, but for right now, technically, the trend is bullish. Resistance for both July and December Corn at $4.15 futures.
Soybean: 3 - 6 higher
Soybeans are higher on commercial buying. Planted acres, released later today, are expected to be around 70%. Demand for soybeans remain strong as 4 million bushels of new crop US soybeans were sold to China, along with 100,000 metric tons of 2016 soybean meal sold to unknown destination. The overhanging question that traders are debating is how many corn acres switched to soybeans on good prices and planting difficulties? The June 30th stock report will be interesting. July soybeans having a hard time pushing through the $11 futures mark. November soybeans showing hard resistance around $10.75 futures.
Wheat: 2 lower
Wheat a little lower to start of the week. The latest vegetative index suggest that spring wheat has deteriorated some, and that would, in theory, put the crop rating, released later today, at about 75%. Winter wheat could show a bit of improvement at 63% good to excellent. Heavy rains are expected this week for Oklahoma and Texas. Harvest delays are expected. Rains in Russia continue to favor the wheat crop there, but excess rain in France could cause some quality issues. Ukraine is turning a little drier.