May 3, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
Next USDA report is May 10th. Make sure to have your targets working when you’re busy out in the field!
CORN (Down 1)
Corn planting progress was reported at 45% complete as of May 1st. This is right in line with last year at this time and well ahead of the 5-year average of 30% complete. Export inspections on Monday were toward the high end of expectations at 45.6 mln bushels and ahead of the weekly 41 mln bushels needed to reach the USDA forecast. The next big USDA report comes out on May 10th where we will take a look at the updated balance sheet. The trade is still thinking somewhere around a 2 bln bushel carryout for the time being. The bulls hope for continued export strength heading into summer as production issues still seem to be present with dryness in Brazil. Nearby support for July futures can be found on the 10 day moving average at $3.885 with resistance present at $3.95 N16.
SOYBEANS (Up 5)
Bean planting was reported at 8% complete this week versus 10% last year at this time. Although a bit off of last year we are still ahead of the 5-year average of 6% complete at this time. Export inspections were on the low side of expectations at 5.5 mln bushels. Yesterday’s price action started out lower but gained momentum as the day went on as the funds continue to add to their long position. Carryout estimates for next week’s USDA report are around 430 mln bushels for 2015 and 440 mln bushels for the 2016 crop. Nearby support is found on the 10 day moving average at 10.26 July futures with resistance showing at $10.50. Below is a look at the day chart for November 16 (NC) beans.
Wheat planting continues to clip along now at 54% complete versus the 5-year average of 39% at this time. Spring wheat emerged is also ahead of pace, now 22% emerged versus 8% last week. Export inspections were in line with expectations at 13.1 mln bushels. The wheat emerged overall looks to be good with what looks to be a favorable extended forecast. We are still dealing with close to a 50% stocks to use ratio which has the funds still keeping a net short position. Nearby support for Minneapolis July futures is found at $5.45 with resistance at $5.60. Nearby support for July Kansas City futures is found at $4.67 with resistance at $4.81.