September 30, 2015
Matt Erickson
Grain Marketing Specialist

USDA quarterly stocks report out this morning @11AM, have your targets working!

CORN- Up 1
The market seems to be searching for some fresh news as nearby futures traded on both sides of unchanged in the overnight session. Average trade guess for corn ending stocks in this morning’s report are 1.739bln bushel. China announced on Tuesday that they will drop their state corn prices for this coming year starting in November. Early yield reports look to be good with many starting to wonder if the USDA was closer than originally anticipated at 167bpa. Nearby support for December corn can be found at $3.75 with resistance found at $3.95.

Two sided trade was seen overnight on beans as traders position themselves for this morning’s report. Rains seem to be slowing harvest some in the ECB while harvest is ramping up in the WCB. Average trade guesses for this morning’s stocks are 205 mln bushels, this would be down 5 mln bushel from the previous report. Outside of a bullish stocks number in this morning’s report nearby futures seem to be capped with many good yield reports being seen across the country. Nearby support for November futures can be found at $8.58 with resistance at $8.92. Below is a look at the 8-14 day precipitation outlook…

WHEAT- Minneapolis Up 1, Kansas City Up 1
Wheat futures seem to have a little steam behind them the last couple weeks as the market puts some weather premium in for Australia, Russia and Ukraine. World wheat stocks at this point remain large along with domestic supplies currently at a 41% stocks to use ratio. According to trade estimates world wheat stocks in the morning’s USDA report should be between 1.987 to 2.285 bln bushels. Nearby support for Minneapolis futures can be found at $5.135 with resistance found at $5.2975 on the December contract. Nearby support for Kansas City futures can be found at $4.895 with nearby resistance at $5.1525 on the December contract.