Sep 23 rd 2014
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn: As of 7:45- 2 lower
Corn continued its slide on more of the same- solid yields and weather. USDA crop condition report yesterday afternoon had corn 90% dented vs. ave of 92%, 7% harvested vs. ave of 15% and conditions left unchanged at 74% g/e. Export inspections a solid 40 mbu vs. expectations of 31-35. Not too terribly shocking as with the decline in prices one would think you would pick up some business. There is still a quick ship premium at some ethanol locations in the area but could and will shrink fast so if you are holding on to oc corn the market is still telling you to move it but it’s not giving you much time to do it.
Soybeans: As of 7:45- unchanged
Soybeans posting double digit losses yesterday on harvest pressure, solid yields and forecast. Export inspections at 17.2 mbu exceeding expectations of 9-14. USDA crop condition report yesterday afternoon had 45% leaves dropped vs. ave of 53%, 3% harvested vs. ave of 8% and a slight decline of rating by 1% to 71% g/e. A lot of talk of 2015 acreage switching from corn to beans with some as high as 4 mil more bean acres and 2 mil less corn. Corn/Bean ration would suggest that could happen but remember that ration is only real if you protect it. If that sort of swing happens, do you think that ratio will remain true? Below is a sx5/cz5 chart.
Wheat: As of 7:45- 1 lower
Egypt bought wheat yesterday which lead to early support before succumbing to pressure from weakness in row crops and the realization that there is plenty of wheat in the world. Export inspections at 506.612 tmt. Spring wheat harvest at 86% complete vs. average of 92% winter wheat seeding at a brisk 25% planted vs. ave of 22%.