July 17, 2014
Grain Marketing Specialist
Targets proved to once again be a good tool as Sept futures were up as much as 12 cents before closing up 4 cents on Wednesday!
CORN – Down 2
Corn showed a nice positive gain on Wednesday as we pivot off nearby support of $3.74 September futures. Heat in the 10 day forecast kept corn futures positive as pollination stage approaches in most of the Corn Belt. A new sale of 210 tmt 2014/2015 corn to unknown added to the bullish news in yesterday’s trading session. In the weekly ethanol production report on Wednesday ethanol produced increased 16,000 barrel/day to 943,000. If weekly ethanol production keeps up at this pace we will exceed the current USDA estimate of 5.075 bln bushels used for grind this year. The nominal $4.00 futures mark is our next level of resistance but as you can see in the chart below, just above that is $4.06 where we retrace to as well as find our gap. Looks to be a good spot to throw in a target….
SOYBEANS – Down 1
The bullish sentiment to the bean market yesterday was driven by a couple export sales. First, 120tmt of 2013-2014 beans sold to China followed by 240tmt 2014-2015 beans sold to unknown. Exports coupled with the potential heat ridge coming for the last couple weeks of July seem to have put a short term floor under old and new crop beans. With that said, we are still fundamentally faced with a 72% nationally rated bean crop and 84.8 mln acres planted. The recent rally in November beans has NC cash values back above $10 cash, may be a good sale to make while the market is up. Technically, we look for resistance at $11.08 with nearby support at $10.65 November futures. Below is a look at the November14 day chart.
WHEAT – Kansas City Unchanged, Minneapolis Unchanged
The wheat market traded on both side of unchanged on Wednesday as we continue to consolidate in both Minneapolis and Kansas City markets. In world news Black sea harvest is underway and preliminary reports look to be good. Export wise Algeria bought +800tmt of EU wheat in yesterday’s export sales report. Nearby resistance for Minneapolis September futures is at $6.72 with nearby support at $6.26. Nearby resistance for Kansas City September futures is at $6.85 with support at $6.32.