July 16, 2014
Grain Marketing Specialist
CORN – Up 6
The market traded lower on Tuesday with Monday night’s improved crop rating of 76% good to excellent. Even with the bearish news we were still able to hold support at $3.74 September futures. Weather conditions continue to be cool this week with heat coming next week during critical pollination period for much of the Corn Belt. Most traders believe the market is intrinsically trading around a 170 bushel per acre yield while the last USDA report had the yield at 165.3 bushels per acre. Technically, we continue to look for support and consolidation around $3.74 Sept futures with resistance at $4.00. The December 14 contract did not have a good close on Tuesday with a new low close being made along with new contract lows. Below is a look at the December14 day chart.
SOYBEANS – Up 7
Weather models released mid-day Tuesday showed a heat ridge over much of the Midwest, which led to firmer levels into the close. Technically, we have seen decent consolidation in the November contract the last three trading sessions with lower highs and higher lows. We still look to fill the gap left in November futures from $11.32 to $11.28. In exports news the USDA released a sale yesterday made to China for 120tmt. Looking at new crop ratios for corn and beans we are at 2.8 in favor of beans, which still may be a bit too wide. The NOPA crush report on Tuesday showed there were 118.7 million soybeans crushed in the month of June which was just shy of trade expectations. Below is a look at the 6-10 day temperature outlook.
WHEAT – Kansas City Up 5, Minneapolis Up 3
The technically oversold wheat market seems to have found some consolidation in both Minneapolis and Kansas City markets. Winter wheat harvest moves north as harvest reports start to come in from southern South Dakota. Anywhere from 11% to 15% protein being reported thus far. Technically, we see the next resistance level for Minneapolis Sept futures at $6.72 with nearby resistance for Kansas City Sept futures at $6.86.