June 5, 2014
Grain Marketing Specialist
Reports coming up: next Monday’s Crop progress/condition report, next Wednesday’s USDA WASDE and crop production report.
CORN – Unchanged
Favorable extended weather forecasts and excellent growing conditions continue to weigh on the market. The funds are starting to act like they want to narrow up their 171,000 contract long position in July futures, selling ~10,000 contracts on Tuesday and Wednesday. Weekly ethanol production showed 938,000 barrels produced versus 927,000 last week. Ethanol stocks are now building to levels we were seeing last spring. Technically, we see support for July corn in the $4.50 area with the next level of resistance coming in at $4.80.
SOYBEANS – Down 6
Bean conditions continue to look favorable in the extended forecast with emergence ahead of last year at this time. The trade is still trying to determine how many corn acres will switch to beans in the northern growing areas adding even more pressure to the market. November futures seem to have found some support at $12.14 while July beans have found some support at $14.75. Export sales are expected to be slightly positive to net negative to keep in line with the USDA projected export number. The USDA has projected imports at 90 million bushels with the trade now thinking the actual number may be 10-20 million bushels shy of that mark.
WHEAT – Up 1-2
We had our first bounce in wheat yesterday as the trade positions itself for Thursday’s much anticipated Informa Winter wheat production estimate. World wheat values continue to stay cheaper than U.S. wheat, hindering exports for the time being. Technically, Minneapolis September futures are showing support at $6.92 while Kansas City September futures are showing support at $7.14.