September 30, 2011
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager

CORN: 30 lower

We may have a pretty good shot at hitting that new 40 cents limit today.  Unfortunately we will probably test it on the downside.  The average trade guess coming into this morning’s report was for the stocks number to come in at 964 million so this morning’s number of 1.128 billion is potentially a fatal blow to the hopes and dreams of corn bulls everywhere.  Couple this news with a dollar that is trading higher and we should see incredible pressure on this market today.  My technical indicators are all bearish and I am thrilled for those of you that sold when the technical sell signals were given this year.  In looking at the charts the Fibonacci support levels for December futures you can make a case that we could see support at $5.75 and if that doesn’t hold the next number up would be $4.98.      

SOYBEANS: 20 lower

The soybeans stocks number of 214 million is a little less than the average trade guess of 225 but with the other markets expected to open sharply lower and a stronger dollar I would look for beans to be down hard at the opening bell as well.  The yields reports from around the country continue to come in better than expected and my technical indicators are remaining bearish.  Look for Fibonacci numbers driven support at $11.68.

WHEAT: 20 lower

All wheat stocks came in at 2.15, above the average trade guess of 2.035.  The 2011/12 production numbers dropped from an estimate of 2077 in August to 2008 in this morning’s report.  This leaves one asking how we have a smaller than expected harvest and yet still see the stocks number increase.  This would seem to indicate a lower feed usage which flies in the face of conventional wisdom.  If you look at HRS you see that the average trade guess was for a crop of 493 and this report gave us 463.  Longer term that should be supportive.  HRW had an average trade guess of 791 with the report coming in at 780.  Look for the market t open lower today but in the days ahead the short HRS and the drought in HRW country may lend support to this market.  Of course, if corn futures drop to under $5 it will be hard to get folks real excited about wheat. 

The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.