April 10, 2014
Grain Marketing Specialist
Interesting note...as of 7:45AM this morning December corn futures are 40 cents ahead of insurance prices and November bean futures are 87 cents ahead of the February insurance pricing model
CORN – Down 2
Corn carryout was tightened 125 million bushels yesterday as the USDA increased exports on the balance sheet by 125 mln bushels. The report release yesterday brought with it very intense volumes and price swings with May futures, ranging 20 cents in the first 10 minutes post-report. Targets proved once again to be a very powerful tool as we filled targets at levels we did not see the rest of the trading session. The ethanol data released yesterday was not as strong as last week but still showed ethanol staying in line with the weekly rate needed to hit the USDA projection. Technically, our next level of resistance for December futures is $5.25 and our next level of resistance for May futures is at $5.23.
SOYBEANS – Down 3
The USDA tightened up an already ‘snug’ carryout number by 10 mln bushels yesterday, giving fuel to the bean market. Many of you may be wondering, well how does this compare to last year? Last year’s world ending stocks were pegged at 57.87mmt versus this year’s USDA estimate of 69.42mmt. Most of the beans this year are still in South America, raising the question if this is a world or domestic problem. Technically, we closed above our last resistance level of $12.195 yesterday and at one point were within a penny of our next level of resistance for November futures at $12.35. Below is a look at the day chart for November beans.
WHEAT – Up 2
The USDA report raised domestic wheat carryout by 25 mln bushels from last month’s numbers. From a world perspective, wheat stocks were raised almost 3mmt from the last report. Continued concerns of southern U.S. dryness weigh on the winter wheat market even with Kansas being reported at 76% good to excellent in Tuesday’s crop condition report.