February 21, 2014
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn – Down 2
Ag Forum numbers were released this morning looking at next year’s Supply and Demand. New crop corn demand was lowered to 13.38 bln bushels versus 13.56 bln baseline and this year of 13.30 bln bushels. March corn continues to hang above the $4.50 CH14 mark. These futures levels produce $4 cash corn at most Wheat Grower locations, be sure to have your targets in place! Through yesterday’s close the Crop insurance pricing model has the average close for Dec 14 futures at $4.60 for the month of February. The next level of nearby resistance remains $4.70 Z14 for NC corn and $4.63 CH14 for old crop.
Soybeans – Down 2
Ag Forum numbers released yesterday had next year’s soybean plantings at 79.5 mln acres. These acres with trend line yield indicate an average farm price of $9.65. With this in mind current NC cash beans into most Wheat Grower locations today are around $10.65, a good $1 premium to current USDA estimates. On another note, the February Crop Insurance pricing model has November beans currently at an average of $11.255 through yesterday’s close.
Wheat – Down 1
Wheat continues its bullish trend, looking for its 10th straight positive gains day in a row. Bitter cold temperatures in the extended forecast for the Northern plains has the trade concerned with a possible wheat winter kill, aiding the recent rally. Ag Forum numbers indicate all wheat plantings at 55.5 mln acres for next year. Taking into account trend line yield, the USDA estimates the average farm price to be around $5.30.