October 16th, 2013
Drew Johnson
Grain Originator


Corn as of 8:00 am 1 higher.

Trade looking to see if China demand will help this market as domestic values, over there, are nearly double what US values are. Rumors yesterday were that China had purchased 11.8 million bushels of corn from the US.  Harvest at 30% done nationwide. Yields reported as tremendous, with some traders believing that the national average will be 160 bu/A! Even if there is confirmed lower planting numbers, this type of yield will put the US over 2 billion bushels. These types of numbers, if confirmed, will send prices lower. The 6 – 14 day weather forecast shows cooler temps and drier conditions heading our way. Lets get them combines rolling! Support at $4.32 futures

Revenue Insurance Price discovery is at $4.406.

 

Soybeans as of 8:00 am 5 higher.

NOPA crush numbers coming out at 108.7 million bushels. Even though it came in higher than the trade guess, it still did not match the 119.7 last year at this time. Soy oil stocks down to 1372 vs 1669 last month and way behind the 2043 last year. China still seems to be an active buyer in the bean market. Chinese domestic crush numbers are still strong. US export inspections were at 47.4 million bushels versus 30.6 last week, but these too are still behind the numbers last year of 58.3. Rains are making things better in Brazil and Argentina. Support at $12.62 futures.

Revenue Insurance Price discovery is at $12.81.

 

Wheat as of 8:00 am Spr. Wheat 1 higher.   Win. Wheat unchanged.

Wheat is becoming a market of its own as trade is looking at multiple world locations to see where prices will go. First, Trade fears India will lower wheat export prices to undercut demand. Second, moisture in Russia and Ukraine are wreaking havoc with quality. Third, Trade is watching surging wheat prices in Argentina. This making some traders believe that Brazil will look to the US for wheat imports. Fourth, US winter wheat stocks to tighten to levels not seen since 2007-08. Does anyone remember those years? Export inspections were at 25.3 million bushels, some 42% above last year at this time. Support for Spring and Winter Wheat is around 7.50 futures.