October 14th, 2013
Drew Johnson
Grain Originator

Corn as of 8:00 am Dec 1 lower.  Dec '14 1 lower

The corn market keeps heading lower. Quick recap from last week, the only news the market had to go on was a “proposed” cap on the renewable fuel standards issued by the EPA. The government is still in shutdown. China buying 160 mln bushels of corn last week. The fall discovery price for the revenue price insurance is at right now $4.4075.

Looking at the December ’13 basically says it all. It looks like we are headed for $4.00 futures. Which we have not seen since June 2010! Better than expected yields to keep pressure on the market as corn harvest starts to get fully ramped up across the nation. Technically speaking we are bearish with some support at 429 with major support around 425.

Soybeans as of 8:00 am Nov 4 higher.  Nov '14 6 higher

We can see harvest pressure still weighing on the bean market. I believe that it was somewhat of a blessing that the USDA report did not come out last Friday. With soybeans yields coming off better than expected, a bearish market report may have done more damage than what we got to see last week. The only wild card will be harvested acres. Looking at the soybean chart you can see what range we have been trading in. 1250 seems to be the support line. Fall discovery price for revenue price insurance is now at $12.8375. This is right under the base price of $12.87.

Wheat as of 8:00 am Spr. Wheat 4 lower.   Win. Wheat 5 lower.

Wheat, as we have seen, has been moving higher slowly and steadily. How much longer can wheat hang on when we see the corn and beans spiraling too lower levels?  Exports, on the other hand, have been very good, recently, for wheat and have been the main contributor in keeping this market afloat. With holidays going on in the US, Canada and Muslim countries expect some pressure on the wheat market this week.