September 15, 2011
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager
CORN: 5 lower
I heard from a number of you with grandparent sayings that I missed yesterday. Some of the ones that I missed were: You haven’t the brains that God gave a goose, lower than a bowlegged caterpillar, Go pour sand down a rat hole, madder than two dogs stuck together and Goodness gracious... for land’s sake! I also ended up having a nice conversation about Black Jack gum which it appears most grandma’s used to carry.
As far as the market goes we had price consolidation on the heels of Tuesday’s hard down day. In fact, we saw the funds actually buy 5,000 contracts on the day. I found it interesting that much of the pressure on Tuesday initially came from reports that yields in Illinois were better than expected. I had the chance to speak with a counterpart of mine in a co-op in eastern Illinois yesterday and he told me that the three fields he had seen harvested so far went 98, 102 and 106 for yields. I found that interesting in view of the other stories of better than expected yields. I suspect that we will hear a lot more bullish and bearish harvest reports before this thing is wrapped up for the year. Fears over the potential for a hard freeze also supported the market yesterday. As you can see on the following temperature map, the lows all seem to be 30 and above and with temperatures warming this story is probably off the table for the time being. From a technical perspective all of my indicators are bearish with the next level of Fibonacci support coming in the December futures at $7.02.
SOYBEANS: 3 lower
Slow exports, a basis in the gulf that seems to be getting softer and crush margins that are tightening up seemed to be the dominate news in the bean market yesterday. Speaking of basis, word out of Brazil is that there basis is getting softer as well as a result of reduced Chinese demand at the present time. Of course, at the back of everybody’s mind was the fear of what could happen should a solid freeze develop last night. With the “freeze story” now apparently behind us I would look for the session today to open lower, in line with what we saw in the overnight trade. Purely from a technical perspective all of my indicators are bearish and we are at a point in the year where seasonally one would expect the market to work lower. I have Fibonacci support in the November futures at $13.75 and then additional support at $13.53.
WHEAT: 5 lower
The price of wheat out of the Black Sea region has been increasing but in spite of that Egypt bought wheat from Russia for $24/MT less than what the USA offer was. I suppose we should be thankful that he gap isn’t $60/MT any longer but none the less this news cast a shadow over the wheat market yesterday. With portions of Texas getting some rain last night I would look for this market to be under pressure this morning as well. My technicals are all bearish and the charts don’t show much for support.
The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.