September 12, 2011
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager

CORN: 5 lower

The report this morning reflects one of the largest yield reductions ever made in a September report.  If memory serves me correctly the average trade guess coming into the report was for a national average yield of 149 bu/acre and total production of 12.519.  What the USDA gave us this morning was a national average yield of 148.1 bu/acre and a total production figure of 12.497.  The planted and harvested acres were left unchanged and given the flooding problems that we have seen this year the trade may expect that those numbers will be adjusted at a later date.  On the demand side of the equation the USDA reduced feed by 200 while ethanol and exports were each reduced by 100 million bushels to end up at a projected carry-out of 672.  The world corn carry-out was increased in today’s report.  It swelled from a projected 114.53 MT last month to 117.39 MT in today’s report.  With lower outside markets we may very well see corn end up lower for the session.

SOYBEANS: 20 lower

In sharp contrast to corn where we saw a yield reduction, the USDA increased their yield projection from the 41.4 that they gave us in August to 41.8 bu/acre in this mornings report.  This pushed the total projected production number to 3.085, above both the 3.056 of last month’s report and the average trade estimate of 3.032.  The USDA also dropped beginning stocks by 5, increased exports by 15, reduced seed by 2 and increased residual by 2 to end up with a projected carry-out of 165.  This figure in 10 million larger than the 155 that was projected last month.

WHEAT: 10 lower

The USDA report this morning is projecting that the wheat carry-out will swell.  The report reduced exports sharply which in turn took ending stocks from a figure of 671 last month to a projected 761 this morning.  Since the average trade guess was for a figure of 663 it is hard to see this as anything but bearish.  On the world scene we saw supplies increase as well with the projected world carry-out going from 188.87 MT in August to 194.59 MT this morning.

The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.