Aug 13th 2013
Brad Olson
Grain Marketing Specialist


Corn:  As of 7:45- 3-4 higher

Corn found some traction yesterday on favorable report. USDA trimmed back yield to 154.4 vs 156.5 last month on the production side and lowering feed/residual 50 and exports by 25 on the demand side of the balance sheet. This surprised many as most thought yield would be raised giving support finally to the corn market. Crop conditions out yesterday afternoon showing nationally a good/excellent rating of 64% vs.  lw of 64% and ly of 23%. Dough stage at 32% vs 18% lw, 76% ly and 48% ave. Technically yesterday did turn all three of my indicators bullish. Assuming we have found a temporary bottom I have attached a Dec corn chart with retracement levels if a person was looking to target some catch up sales. Keep in mind that even with the adjusted production number we are still looking at a carry out of 1.837 which could warrant lower prices especially during harvest.

Soybeans:  As of 7:45- 10 higher

The soybeans numbers in yesterday’s report a little surprising as well. Average trade estimate did anticipate a decline but USDA did exceed that with a decline of both planted and harvest acres by .5 and adjusting yield lower by 1.9 bpa. On the demand side of the balance sheet we did see a decline of both crush and exports but when it all washed out ending stocks lowered by 75 to 220. Crop ratings out at 64% good/excellent vs 64% lw and 30% ly. Setting pods at 58% vs 39% lw, 81% ly and 68% ave. Technically all of my indicators are bullish and I have attached a chart with retracement assuming we have found a bottom.

 


Wheat:  As of 7:45- 3 higher

Very little changes made to the domestic wheat balance sheet with just a decline of 25 in exports. Winter wheat harvest all but wrapped up at 92% complete and spring wheat harvest slowly progressing at 6% v save of 24% and down 2% good/excellent rate to 66%. Technically this market struggles to find direction lately but should be supported by a rebounding corn market.