July 30, 2013
Producer Marketing Manager
Is it “Turnaround Tuesday” or just the dead cat bounce?
Corn: As of 7:00 – Up 3
Crop conditions yesterday showed 63% of the nationwide corn crop rated Good/Excellent, which is steady from last week. The gains in KS, MO, ND and the eastern cornbelt were offset by declines in SD, MN, NE, and IA. Crop progress is still behind………Corn silking remains 4 points behind average at 71% of the crop entering the pollination stage, although we made significant progress over last week. Those states lagging their averages are MN, IA, WI, and MO. Many areas are pushing black layer into October! Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that the large Spec funds are continuing to grow their short corn position by adding another 45,000 contracts to a record net short of 156,000. Assuming Mother Nature does cooperate the balance of this year, their position may feel justified, but any production threats or unexpected demand shows up and this could create some upside volatility.
Soybeans: As of 7:00 – UP 1
Soybeans were also rated at 63% G/E this week, down 1% from last week. Most in the trade was predicting an uptick in ratings. Notable drops occurred in SD, IA, WI, MN and MS. LY we were rated at 29% G/E at this time, meaning ratings don’t really matter until we get into the August timeframe and what precip develops at that time! Basis levels have seemed to have stabilized for now after last week’s hemorrhage.
Wheat: As of 7:00 – MPLS Up 2, KC Up 3
HRS ratings were unchanged as well @ 68% G/E. SD continued to drop in ratings as we quickly approach harvest. Early reports on the first HRS coming off is low TW and high Protein. ND continued to improve and is rated quite well at 76% G/E. HRW harvest is nearly wrapped up at 81% complete, with NE and SD yet to finish. Weekly export shipments of wheat was fairly strong again at 25.4 million bushels, up 1.2 from last week.