June 27, 2013
Travis Antonsen
Producer Marketing Manager

Old crop/New Crop Spread trade made up the bulk of the activity yesterday as traders position for tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acreage report. Below is the convenience table for tomorrow’s report.

   

Corn:  As of 7:45 – Nearby up 1, NC Down 2
The nearby July contract closed 8 cents higher yesterday as the Dec board was steady after spending much of the session in negative territory.  Weekly export sales out this morning were stronger than expected for old crop at 13.3 million bushels (expecting 4-8).   New crop sales were right at the lower end of expectations @ 6 mbu.  Ethanol numbers out yesterday were stronger by 12k barrels/day, matching our highest run rate in May.
Trade guesses for tomorrow’s report are: 

  • June 1 stocks = 2.845 billion bushels with a range of 2.725 – 2.952. 
  • Planted Acreage = 95.313 million acres with a range of 94.2 – 96.9. 

Soybeans:  As of 7:45 – Nearby up 5, NC up 3
In similar fashion to corn, nearby soybean months led the way higher yesterday.  The November struggled much of the day and finished a couple cents lower.  Export sales were next to nothing for old crop (0.5 million bushels).  New crop sales were toward the upper end of the range at 16.6 mbu.
Trade guesses for tomorrow’s report are: 

  • June 1 stocks = 442 million bushels with a range of 413 – 500. 
  • Planted Acreage = 77.933 million acres with a range of 77.1 – 79.24. 

Wheat:  As of 7:45 – MPLS up 2, KC up 5
All three wheat markets were lower yesterday and lost ground against old crop corn futures.  Export sales out this morning were strong @ 26.9 mbu.  The trade was expecting 13-20 mbu.  Most of that was HRW (11.5) followed by SRW (7.0) and HRS (5.3).  With the reports of good yields and lower protein levels out of the southern plains, it brings into question how much of this new crop Hard Red Winter and new crop Soft Red Winter will flow into the feeding rations as we finish out the summer on very thin stocks of corn.  Below is the chart on KC vs. Corn futures.