March 11, 2012
Producer Marketing Manager
Welcome back Daylight Savings Time!
Corn: As of 7:45 – Up 2
Old crop corn futures closed 12 higher on Friday following USDA’s S/D report release. They left ending stocks alone at 632 million bushels by adjusting exports down (-75), feed use up (+100), as well as increased imports (+25). With the S/D report behind us, attention will now shift towards the “Grain Stocks and Prospective Planting” report due out on March 28th. Planters are running in the delta with Mississippi and Louisiana running at around 10% planted. This is a little behind last year’s pace of 20+% done. Below is the old crop corn chart with a downtrend line we continue to bump against.
Soybeans: As of 7:45 – Up 5
Soybeans traded as much as 23 cents lower Friday before closing just a couple cents lower on late strength in the corn pits. The USDA decided to punt on soybean balance sheet for now and made no changes. The market had anticipated a bump in export numbers. On the world scene, the only adjustment of note was a 1.5mmt decrease in the size of the Argentina soybean crop to 51.5mmt. Despite the reduction, combined production from Brazil and Argentina is still forecast at a record 135.0mmt (+27% vs. last year) with exports forecast to rise 13%.
Wheat: As of 7:45 – MPLS Up 1, KC Steady
India’s wheat production was estimated 1 mmt higher and EU output was increased by ½ mmt, which accounted for the bump in global wheat stocks to 178.2 MMT vs February’s guess of 176.7 MMT. This compares to last year’s March estimate of 196.5 MMT. Even with the recent pace of US exports, government did drop sales by 25 mbu which would seem prudent given the slow start to the marketing season.