February 8, 2013
Producer Marketing Manager
It was great to see many of you at our Marketing Meetings in Roscoe and Aberdeen yesterday. There are still opportunities to catch a meeting today as we will be at Fisher Grove near Redfield starting at 10 am and will finish out the day at The Plains in Huron at 2 pm.
Corn: As of 7:45 - Steady
USDA S/D report is out this morning at 11:00 am. The big question is will they change (lower) demand portions of the equation? Exports have been well below pace to hit current USDA Projections and ethanol grind has dropped below levels needed to hit the 4.5 billion bushel. A little chatter in the market yesterday with a slight uptick in ethanol profitability that a few more plants that have been idled my come back on line. Average trade guess for ending stocks is 615 million bushels vs 602 in Jan. Below is a quick map of feed grain prices around the world.
Soybeans: As of 7:45 – Up 6 Old crop, New Crop down 1
New Crop Soybeans took a tumble yesterday as Conab, a South American analyst got the ball rolling with their updated crop size estimate. They printed a crop size of 83.4 mmt’s vs. their January estimate of 82.7 mmt’s. The USDA’s last estimate was 82.5 mmt’s, which we will see if they change that in their report this morning. Old crop shrugged this off and was only down slightly on the large export numbers out yesterday. Average trade guess for ending stocks is 129 million bushels, lower than the 135 number reported in Jan.
Wheat: As of 7:45 – MPLS Up 1, KC Up 4
Not much for news in the wheat market aside for low export sales numbers mentioned yesterday. Soft wheat has priced itself competitive enough with corn that we are hearing some trains out of Ohio trading into domestic feed markets. This weekend’s storm looks to bring moisture to the delta all the way up the Mississippi valley to the northern plains, leaving out most of the southern HRW areas in KS, OK, and TX.