February 4, 2013
Producer Marketing Manager
According to Punxsutawney Phil we only have 6 weeks of winter remaining!
Corn: As of 7:45 - Up 2
Corn is trading a little higher this morning on the strength in the soybean complex. The big question in the corn market is how much demand do we have to ration to get to NC supplies? It seems to me we are starting to get some more clarity in that regard, as Friday’s USDA Semiannual Cattle report showed the US herd down 1.6% from last year and the smallest in 60+ years. Watch for weekly ethanol run rates released Wed to see if we see continued drop in grind in that sector.
Soybeans: As of 7:45 - Up 13
Soybeans look to be the leader to start the week. Argentine rainfall tallies from the weekend were below expectations with this week’s forecast looking dry and warmer than normal. On the flip side of that early harvest in northern Brazil is being slowed by more precip. The large state of Mato Grosso is showing 11% complete on harvest. Could the delays be significant enough to cause some more business to be shifted to the US? Look for resistance around $15.00 on the March contract.
Wheat: As of 7:45 - Mpls Up 5, KC Up 3
Over the weekend Egypt bought a cargo of US soft wheat. Soft wheat values for June/July are competitive with corn in feeding rations. Specifically, North Carolina values are favoring soft wheat over corn by $28/ton. Market is looking at better chances for precip for the HRW belt into the weekend as shown below.