December 20th, 2012
By: Lynn Miller – Grain Originator, Grebner
CORN: 7:55 Trading -13 ¾
Fundamentally there is no new news around the market place making it seem impossible at this point to rally the futures. Other than Informa’s acreage numbers (up yesterday now at 99 million) nothing else has really changed: exports are poor , ethanol has plateaued and the only thing left to worry about through the holidays is year-end positioning. We have stepped away from the Franklin-Dodd legislation lately, but the funds have not. They have new regulations under President Obama that will magnify the year end. Then we have the January 11 S&D report with a couple of different factors to keep an eye on. Will feed use replace exports? What will they do with yield and harvested acres? And lastly, what about South American production? After yesterday’s technical action it’s probably going to take some pretty big news to turn the tides. Technically, yesterday was a bad day. Once the March traded through the established support line it was downhill with sell off action. We have now broken out of the sideways trading range we have been stuck in since September 27th as you can see on the chart below. We are now looking for support at $6.82 and hoping that will hold.
SOYBEANS: 7:55 Trading -30 1/2
Beans continued to be the leader yesterday, too bad it’s in the wrong direction. We are still seeing pressure from Tuesday’s surprise cancellation announcement and thoughts that Brazil is getting a larger share of the February business. Funds were sellers of 9,000 contracts now long 122,000. Fundamentally it appears as if our window for opportunity is under pressure. Informa’s acres though, smaller yesterday than November, are still up 1.7 million from last year at 78.9. And then there is this good moisture that has been coming through the central belt. Technically the picture just doesn’t looks very pretty. Currently all three indicators are bearish with support at $13.75. This is a support level that has held as recently as November 16th. So here’s hoping.
WHEAT: 7:55 Minneapolis -11 ½ Kansas City -15 ¾
Good export news yesterday pushed wheat against the grain yesterday, giving us some small gains early, but in the end the pressure from poor row crops was too much to overcome. Look for wheats to take direction from corn. Technically, both the Minneapolis and Kansas City are trying to hold on trading now just barely over support of $8.90 and $8.45 respectfully with all three indicators now bearish.