November 27th 2012
Drew Johnson
Grain Marketing Specialist


Corn
As of 7:40am Dec. up 4. Dec ’13 up 3

Corn values relaxed a little during mid day trade yesterday while trade tries to balance ideas of slow exports, possible Mississippi River shut down, persistent drought in the US and a wet Argentina. Weekly exports at 15.9 million well below the 36 million last year at this time. Army Corps of Engineers slowly reducing water flow of the Missouri River, which in time will also drop the Mississippi which in turn would cause major disruption in barge traffic. Trade is also watching the chance of more rains coming into Argentina.  Some projections are Argentina will be 65% planted, which is behind the average of 76%. This could cause reduction in yield and lost acres which the Trade thinks could be adjusted in the December or January supply and demand report. Trade is also watching the drought in the US. If drought persists we could see a reduction in projected yield going into the next growing season. Looking at New Crop 2013 we can see, represented by the bright blue line, some resistance around the $6.45 futures mark. This could be where we find some opportunity to be doing some target prices

Soybeans
As of 7:40am Jan up 12. Nov ’13 up 6

Weekly exports remain strong with reported 45.4 million bushels versus 41.8 million bushels at this time last year. USDA announcing another 20,000 tons of soybean oil sold to unknown. With rain still threatening Argentina USDA is forecasting South American exports down 500,000 to 600,000 tons. Look to see beans remain volatile.

 


Wheat
As of 7:40am Spr. Wheat up 12. Win. Wheat up 7

Wheat values remaining positive as traders try to get a grip on the drought in wheat country. Crop ratings stated that WW 33% good. Moisture percentages with Kansas 76% short, 95% short in Oklahoma, 85% short in Colorado and 72% short in Iowa. Weather forecasts stating the next 10-14 days will remain dry as the wheat goes into dormancy. Wheat stays floating on drought news.