October 16, 2012
Drew Johnson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Dollar is down today

As of 7:15am Dec. up 5. Dec ’13 unchanged to a penny higher.

Beans led the way in pulling the corn market down yesterday. Trade is uneasy about the possible EPA decision on the ethanol mandate to be made after the elections. Trade is still holding on to 308,000 contracts. The Trade could possibly be still reacting to the 600,000 ton shipment of Argentina corn coming in to North Carolina as early as November. Although technical fundamentals would argue that we need higher prices to ration feed demand, we could still see this slip a little in the near term until the Trade gets their heads wrapped around this harvest. Support still around $7.03

As of 7:15am Nov up 10 Nov ‘13 up 11

Friday’s down day inspired more selling in the bean market yesterday. As we see this morning we are relaxing a little bit with markets pushing higher still holding around that $15 area. Bearish news of negative crush margins out of China and a possible even bigger U.S soy crop keep trade in check. Funds still long on an estimated 191,000 contracts and up to this point have only sold 10% of their maximum long position from a month ago. Right now technicals are breaking down. We could still see this thing slide a little farther.  Traders asking questions, what do we have? How will S. America turn out? When will China decided to buy more? Support around $14.

As of 7:15am Spr. Wheat up 7 Win. Wheat up 6

Kansas’s top soil moisture is 62% short with a crop rating of 42% good. Winter Wheat planting is at 71% vs 71 average. Trade lowering U.S wheat demand as export ideas shift to later in the year. Wheat is following corn to compete as a substitute for feed. Spring Wheat is still bouncing between $9.17 and $9.58, Winter Wheat between $8.75 and $9.25.