September 7, 2012
Grain Marketing Specialist
As of 7:20am Old crop up 1 New crop up 1
Corn followed wheat yesterday as Egypt decided to get into the market. Yesterday also brought out multiple private yield estimates that were lower than what the USDA has projected. The range for the estimations is anywhere from 116-119bu per acre compared to the USDA’s 123. Trade is watching this morning for the Informa Reports. Informa will have two production estimates with one taking into account USDA acres and their estimate of September yields. The second forecast will be using the increased FSA adjusted acres along with their projections of a likely higher yield. Yields coming out of the field are dismal, but seem to be getting better as harvest pushes north. Corn will move with this mornings report.
As of 7:20am Old crop down 9 New crop down 9
Beans did not show much yesterday. Trade continues to debate yields, with a range of harvest reports any where from 34.5 to 35.9 compared to the USDA’s 36.1. Informa coming out with estimates this morning and will be using the same format on the soybeans as they are on the corn. Brazil saying soybean exports are at multi year lows as supplies are depleting. Trade is also continuing to follow developing dryness in northern Brazil. As harvest continues remember funds are long in the November contract. We could see some price volatility, but I still believe we could see this thing keep going higher in the long term.
As of 7:20am Spr. Wheat unchanged Win. Wheat up 3
Wheat got some good news. As I stated yesterday Egypt was looking to buy and they did. Russia reconsidering their export program in light of recently strong exports. Some see Russia crop at 41 mmt versus the USDA’s estimate of 43 mmt. Trade watching dryness in Australia and they are also monitoring the dryness in the HRW areas of the U.S. Continue to see wheat stay strong today.