The news of a budget deal seems to have rallied stocks around the world.  It also has crude oil higher and the dollar lower which should be supportive to commodities today.  In the end it looks like we probably just kicked the can down the road or to be more precise re-arranged the chairs on the Titanic with one headline that I saw on Friday reading as follows:  Moody's: Neither debt plan protects the nation's AAA rating

August 1, 2011
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager

CORN: 9 higher

On Friday much of the buzz was around the idea that the old crop carry-out may be increasing due to smaller than projected exports, as we detailed in this space Friday morning, as well as the new crop being helped by rains across portions of the Corn Belt.  This morning those stories seem to have at the very least been moved to the back burner as we are once again talking about the hot temperatures over the week-end and a 6-10 day forecast that seems to stay that way until late this week.  Folks are still debating the impact that hot nights have on eventual production numbers but the general consensus seems to be that we are causing yields to slip to one degree or another.  Technically, two of my three indicators are now bearish with Fibonacci driven support in the December futures at $6.55.

SOYBEANS: 14 higher

As was the case with corn, beans were lower on Friday as a result of what was perceived to be favorable weather.  Then along came the week-end with hot and dry weather across much of the eastern corn belt and we are back positive numbers.  It is interesting to note that funds were sellers of 5,000 bean contracts on Friday, mainly because it was the end of the month.  On the other hand the large traders saw the down day as an opportunity and were aggressive in adding to their long positions.  With the crop conditions expected to slip again this afternoon look for this market to trade higher today.  Technically, all three of my indicators are now bearish.

WHEAT: 14 higher

Wheat got spanked along with everything else on Friday but today the talk seems to be more about the results of the spring wheat tour.  After completing the tour last week the tour participants are projecting a national average yield for spring wheat this year of 41.5 bu/acre.  A year ago the national average yield for spring wheat was 46.1 bu/acre.  In spite of Friday’s action all three of my indicators are still bullish for both Minneapolis with two of the three bullish the Kansas City futures.

The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.