June 27th 2012
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn: As of 7:30- 17 higher
I am beginning to feel like a broken record. Hot/dry forecast push grains higher, hot/dry forecast push grains higher, hot/dry forecast push grains higher, hot/dry forecast push grains higher. See market analysis is really easy. Forecasts show little relief for drought stricken corn producing areas thus we move higher. The question now becomes can we keep this momentum up for the next 2 days prior to the USDA final acre planting/stocks report Friday, how will the report influence the market, and how high can we run this thing before we ration demand- ethanol margins are already terrible. For a matter of perspective, as of this writing Dec corn has moved $1.35 higher since the beginning of the move just 8 trading days ago.
Soybeans: As of 7:30- 15 higher
Soybeans independently settling lower yesterday on ideas of increased acres and a crop rating that declined in line with expectations. Funds are already loaded up long 237,000. The soybean balance sheet looks to have fewer margins for error. Ultimately yield looks to be the driving factor as a modest increase in planted acres would not fix the tightness.
Wheat: As of 7:30- winter wheat unchanged, spring wheat 5 higher
Wheat being held higher by the corn market yesterday to post modest gains. This morning will see Stats Canada acreage estimates. US wheat starting to look expensive to the world. Some relief seen for dry areas of FSU but unknown if it will be in time.