June 13, 2012
5-day forecast precip maps are showing a sizable rain system impacting IA/NE/SD/MN to the tune of 0.75-2.90”. Areas SE of a line from Kansas City to Green Bay, including IL/IN/OH/MO, should remain dry. The midday models are a bit more aggressive with rains in the 6-10 day, showing 0.30-0.80” with isolated 1.00” amounts in the SE-Midwest beginning late next week.
Corn: As of 6:30 am both Old Crop and New Crop 2 Lower
A lower trade based on a bearish USDA report left old crop and new crop carryout unchanged from last month, despite estimates for a reduction. Even deterioration in crop conditions Monday evening failed to provide much boost, but forecasts remain unsettled for the ECB. USDA estimates the 2011/12 ending stocks at 851 million bushels. New crop ending stocks are projected at 1.881 billion with the average trade estimate below that number at 1.750 billion bushels. While dry weather is certainly a growing concern, today's USDA numbers and chance for moisture in the 6-10 day outlook seemed to be enough to keep pressure on prices.
Soybeans: As of 6:30 am Old Crop 1 Lower and New Crop 3 Lower
Soybeans were stronger due to a more severe cut to old crop soybean stocks along with the USDA maintaining ‘pipeline minimum’ for new crop carryout. Projected ending stocks for 2011/12 were reduced to 175 from 210 million bushels and the 2012/13 figure was also reduced to 140 from 145 million bushels on the May report. Tuesday’s USDA report reinforced the fundamental bullishness of the soy complex with tightening of 12/13 US ending stocks leaving zero room for decline in yield or US production.
Wheat: As of 6:30 am SW 4 Higher and WW 6 Higher
Despite report numbers which were considered supportive, all three exchanges closed down double digits. USDA put all wheat production at 2,234 million bushels down from 2245 in May. New crop ending stocks were dropped 41 million bushels to 694 million bushels from the May report. Food use and exports are expected to increase from last year. US old crop ending stocks were 728 million bushels versus 768 in the May report.