May 25th 2012
Grain Marketing Specialist
Grain Markets will be closed Monday in honor of Memorial Day. Trading will resume Monday night at 7:00 p.m.
Corn: As of 7:40- 5 to 6 higher
The corn market took a little beating yesterday after trading higher early. July corn in particular as disappointing weekly sales reports and talk of Brazilian basis dropping like a rock. Offers as much as 24c less than 2 days ago. Weather is also playing a factor as parts Nebraska, Minnesota and western Iowa received rain. 6-10 day forecast still showing normal to below normal precip for the Midwest. As of this writing the dollar index is lower and crude oil is modestly higher supporting the corn market. I look for support for July corn at 5.72 and initial resistance at 6.12 and then 6.36. Stayed tuned to weather over the long weekend, may lead to volatile trade Monday night.
Soybeans: As of 7:40 - 1 higher
Soybean managed to post double digit gains yesterday as favorable weekly sales lessening the worries about Chinese cancellations supported the market. The drop in Brazilian currency and the stronger is dollar is one of reasons for the over 1.50 break that we have seen recently. I have enclosed a chart showing the correlation (red line- soybeans, blue line – dollar index). Weather will also impact this market as 11-12 exports look to leave us at a dangerously tight stock situation with no room for production hiccups. Look to the next WASDE for 11-12 export adjustments.
Wheat: As of 7:40- winter 9 higher, spring 6 higher
Wheat market pretty steady yesterday as harvest is ramping up in the south. Warmer drier conditions expected to drop conditions in Tuesday’s report. The recent wheat strength vs corn weakness making wheat less viable in feed rations. For the morning the wheat complex is following corn stronger. Technically my indicators remain long both winter and spring wheat.