May 22nd 2012
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn: As of 7:40- 8 lower
USDA planting progress has corn at 96% planted compared to a 87% last week, 75% last year and an average of 81%. With planting all but wrapped up the focus now will shift to conditions and weather. We also saw our first ratings out at a high 77% g/e compared to 63% last year and an average of 69%. I believe we will be watching weather and crop condition’s going forward as the large 12/13 stock increase that is being predicted is predicated on a hefty but doable 166 type of a national average. Any deviation or perceived deviation will add premium into the market that may be worth rewarding. 5 day forecast does show moisture for parts of the corn belt. We will have to see what materializes. Technically momentum indicators remain bullish old and new crop alike.
Soybeans: As of 7:40- Old Crop 5 lower, New Crop 9 lower
No surprise that the soybean planting pace is reported at a rapid 76%. That is compared to 46% last week, 35% last year and 42% on average. Emergence 35% compared to 10% last year and an average of 13%. Weekly export inspections out yesterday at a disappointing 12.684 with the trade looking for 15-20. Stay tuned to the weather also in the bean complex as they are even more dependent on at or above trend line yields.
Wheat: As of 7:40- Spring Wheat 2 lower, Winter Wheat 10 lower
Winter wheat crop conditions down another 2% to 58% g/e compared to 32% last year. The most notable decline out of Kansas dropping 9 points for the week. Spring wheat out at 74% g/e. Moisture and cooler temps appear the working into the forecast for the FSU. While not yet issuing sell signals, technically both Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat appear to be getting a little over bought according to the indicators I watch.