May 4, 2012
By: Lynn Miller – Grain Marketing Specialist
CORN: +2 Old Crop, -3 New Crop
REMARKS: It’s official, the National Weather Service says LaNina is dead and El Nino is rapidly forming. This statement probably added some weight to the new crop market yesterday as El Nino summers combined with early planting have a tendency to lend to trend line plus yields. Fundamentally, this corn market still doesn’t have any real direction. The old crop found support in an export number of 1.33 MMT, the largest reported weekly sale since 1991. However, S. American offers at $0.40 below the US bid and increased Brazilian corn numbers off set this pretty well. The erratic action of the past couple days seems almost expected as we have sat in this frustratingly sideways pattern between 6.00 and 6.70 for weeks now. The moisture that a week ago was slowing planting pace is now being seen more as a benefit. Technically 2 of 3 indicators are once again bullis the Old Crop with resistance at $6.25 while all three indicators are now bearish the New Crop with support at $5.00.
SOYBEANS: +6 Old Crop, New Crop Unchanged
Just when we are all liking a nice move up in the market, leave it to the funds to step in and bring us down. We saw July beans touch $15.00 on Wednesday and start to move backwards. It appears as if the $15 mark was a mental mover for the funds who spent yesterday nervously cutting down their long positions. Fundamentally; however, we seem to be pretty strong. They again decreased S. American estimates and exports came in over the trade guess at 1.73 MMT with China buying 675 tmt. Our trend line of support has managed to hold quite well these past two down days. Technically all three indicators are bearish both the old crop and new crops with support at $14.70 and $13.66 respectively. A close below $13.65 would be a trigger to make an incremental sale to me.
Wheat is simple today. Large Crop + Good Weather = Lower Prices. Until something happens to shrink this crop or corn finds some strength, the path of least resistance will be lower. Technically all three indicators are bearish both the Minneapolis and Kansas City markets with support now at 6.93 and 6.13 respectively.