April 25th 2012
Brad Olson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Corn: 3 higher


News of the first case of mad cow since 2006 and forth ever in the US found in a California dairy cow sent the livestock market limit lower spilling over to the corn trade by midmorning. USDA chief Veterinary Office John Clifford gave a statement about the confirmed BSE case and said in part regarding the infected carcass “It was never presented for slaughter for human consumption, so at no time presented a risk to food supply or human health. Additionally, milk does not transmit BSE.” We seemed to have shrugged that news off for the time being and this morning we look to higher based on favorable export news and fear over a colder forecast. Technically oc corn 2 of my 3 indicators are bullish and for nc corn all three.


Soybeans: 11 higher


Old crop soybeans by far the leader yesterday as we tested the contract high before taking it out in the night session. Nov beans lagged but did post nice gains.  Same reason we have talking about in this space for some time was the ultimate culprit, continued realization that world oil stocks will be tight going forward. I have include a weekly continuation chart with retracement off the last major move lower, with the next level of resistance at the 138.2% retracement if we can close the week out strong.


Wheat:  Spring Wheat unchanged, Winter Wheat 3 higher


I think the only hope for the bulls for the foreseeable future is some kind of significant frost damage or a rebound in the corn market. Both of which are possible but not sure I would place any bets. And with Stats Canada projecting a 13% increase in Canadian wheat seeding this market could have a hard breaking significantly higher.
 

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