April 20th 2012
Brad Olson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Corn:  Old crop up 4, New Crop unchanged
 

Rumors of China purchasing old crop corn had the market recovering what we had lost the prior day. Purchase size rumored to be anywhere from 400 to 750 ton.  I am switching my old crop analysis to the July contract. Assuming we have found a temporary bottom I have minor resistance at 6.18 and then 6.34 with support at the December low of 5.91. Momentum indicators have yet to turn bullish but appear to be moving that way. Modest planting progress gains expected from this week with a better forecast for planting this weekend into next week.
 

Soybeans:  5 higher
 

Soybeans closed with modest gains as they took second stage to corn and wheat yesterday. Corn/bean spread sucked into 2.48:1 before recovering some last night.  Something to think about- even if we end up planting above the USDA prospective plantings up to original Ag Forum estimates that puts an addition amount of roughly 50-55 million bu’s more production into the balance sheet for 12/13- does this fix the problem? Not likely.
 

Wheat:  1 lower
 

Wheat dragged higher by the corn market yesterday and with wheat stocks where they are and our price relative to the global market it will be looked at as a feed grain continually being tied to corn. Chicago May corn trading at roughly a 3c premium to Chicago wheat. Mondays crop conditions expected to show yet again another increase in ratings.
 

 

The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.