February 28, 2018
Kaitee Schaefers
Grain Marketing Specialist

Corn: up 1
Put February down as a good month for the ag markets. Corn surely hasn’t been the big story as its moves have been lethargic compared to its counterparts. We continue to see speculative buying support the market on Argy concerns. Yesterday funds were credited with buying 15,000 corn contracts. The funds have switched to a growing long position over the past couple weeks. The new crop December contract has traded up to 4.00 unable to break it. The EIA report will come out later this morning. Production estimates are at 1.061 million barrels per day. Stockpile estimates at 22.859 million barrels. No agreement was made yesterday on the Renewable Fuel Standard. Discussions will continue between the representatives of oil and corn industries.

Soybeans: Up 7
Soybean meal shot up again for the second day on speculative buying. It is now flirting with that $400 mark. The funds were buyers of 6,000 meal contracts and 10,000 soybean contracts yesterday. The way the money guys are manipulating these markets we all better hope (and by the way hope is not a marketing strategy) that these Argentina production estimates at 45 MMT are right or I am anticipating a sell off. What are you doing to manage that risk? Soybean prices have rose 76 cents in February, 1.00 in the past 6 weeks. This price boost has analysts factoring in more US soybean acres. The market will start paying more attention the March planting intentions report out in a month. Estimates are saying we could plant 90 million acres of soybeans. 

Wheat: MPLS Up 4. KC Up 7
Yesterday KC closed up 11 cents and MPLS was unchanged, we saw the KC spread against the MPLS market. The Funds were buyers of 4,000 wheat contracts. Same story, drought concerns in the plains with no relief in sight. On the other hand a wet March and April can do a lot to save this wheat crop. If you look at past years February condition reports poorly correlate with final production numbers. Below is this week’s conditions report.