February 26, 2018
Grain Marketing Specialist
First Notice Day for March futures is tomorrow, Tuesday February 27th.
Corn: Up 1
Corn is following the soybean complex today. We have fallen back into a sideways range. March resistance lies above 3.70, the 200 DMA is at 3.73. For the new crop December contract resistance lies at 4.00. There will be a huge amount of sale orders that fill if we trade through that. Get yours in. Mato Grosso corn planting is at 68% complete. This is equal to the 5 year average but 10% behind last years.
Soybeans: Up 7
Argentina is facing serious crop loss due to dry weather. 60% of Argentina’s soybean region is running on 50% or less of the normal rainfall for the last 30 days. The 15 day forecast continues to be dry. Argentina production is expected to fall somewhere between 49 and 45 MMT. If production falls below 45 MMT hang on for a run up in the bean market. Currently the bean market has worked its way back up to levels we haven’t seen since mid-July. Agro Consult has pegged Brazil production at 117.5 and Argy at 49.0. Brazil is looking at a huge bean crop as long as they can get into the wet fields to get it out. This is contributing to slower planting of the Safrina corn crop. Last week’s export sales turned negative for the first time this marketing year with a 4 million cancelation from China.
Wheat: MPLS Up 3 KC Up 5
One quarter of the HRWW area saw precipitation over the weekend. Weather turns dry again for the next 2 weeks. Midwest and Delta have a wetter forecast for the next 10 days. Minneapolis wheat is consolidated in a 10 cent trading range and is mainly a follower of beans. Europe and the Black Sea are facing cold temps and snow fall this week. The market may be starting to build in a premium going forward.