January 30, 2018
Producer Marketing Manager
CORN: As of 7:45 – Up 1
Mainly higher on strength from the KC wheat market. The continued push in the corn market has farmers rewarding the market and matching up with the fund buying. The March contract did breach the $3.60 mark overnight, albeit we are only $0.15 above contract lows. US corn laid into China is 300 yuan cheaper per ton than domestic Chinese corn ($47/ton or $1.19/bushel).
SOYBEANS: As of 7:45 – Up 1
Dr. Cordonnier increased Brazil’s soybean estimate 1.0 MT to 112 MMT with a higher bias going forward. Not surprisingly, his estimate on soybeans in Argentina was lowered 1.0 MT to 51 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward. The next 10 days looks to be dry in Argentina with changes for precip in the ½” range. Normal precip for this time period would be near 2”.
WHEAT: As of 7:45 – Mpls Up 3, KC Up 10
Yesterday afternoon USDA put out it’s state-by-state HRW conditions for the end of Jan and dropped ratings. Notable ratings included OK with 79% of that crop Poor/Very Poor and KS at 44% Poor/Very Poor. This prompted the KC futures market to gap higher on the open last night and to prices not seen since late Sept. Below is an interesting chart on Jan ratings and final yield numbers for KS and OK. While correlation between ratings and final yield are not great, they will need timely moisture to stage a comeback.