December 7, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
March corn holding above 3.50, feeling some pressure from the turnaround in the bean market. In the chart above you will see we are holding steady on corn export sales at 34.5 right in line with USDA expectations. Ethanol continues to lend support with good production levels. The drought conditions in Argentina may have some effect on less acres of corn being planted. Time will tell. The spec funds are still holding their short position, an estimated 226,000 contracts. The corn market continues to be rangebound, feeling comfortable trading at these levels with the 2.5 billion bushel carryout hanging over us until the January report.
Beans: Down 8
Continued follow through selling after hitting July highs. The gap from Sunday night has been filled and currently we have only gained a penny on the market since last Friday now. A close lower on the week could be a key bearish reversal in the bean market. South America weather has everything stirred up right now. Argentina’s 10 day forecast continues to be dry as they are about 50% planted at this point. The 11-15 day forecast has wide spread rains. The confidence level is low that this will produce more than showers. January contract now trading below 10.00 again at 9.94. Meal market also lower this morning dragging on the soy complex. Soybean meal demand is up year on year. Export Sales were good again this week at 74.1. Still looking at profitable levels to be locking in in the deferred months and new crop 2018.
MPLS wheat looks like it could be heading toward 6.08 area to fill the gap from mid-June. Australia facing quality issues in the field. Stats Canada updated their wheat production at 30 mmt up from 28 mmt. Russia plans to spend an equivalent of 34 million dollars in transportation subsidies to speed up grain exports. Currently they have very poor logistics.