December 5, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn: Up 1
Stronger this morning after a failed attempted at breaking above 3.60 (the 50 DMA) yesterday. Private analysts expect Brazil’s Safrina corn crop to be significantly smaller than last year on the fact that it is not a profitable crop this year. Inspections yesterday came in sub average at 586 TMT vs 1.18 a year ago. The USDA is forecasting an export program that is 9.3 MMT smaller than last year. Good carries In the deferred months, 16 cent carry from march to July. July futures trading at 3.70. New crop 2018 futures at 3.86. Good target levels 3.92, 3.95, and 4.00.
Beans: up 6
Strong trade on the overnight, January futures sitting at 10.04. Some traders are concerned about South American weather. Argentina was supposed to receive a much needed wide spread soaker over the weekend that ended up being much lighter than originally anticipated. Actual damage from this early drought is up for debate, although there are talks of lower yields which would slow soymeal exports. Yesterday’s US Inspections came in at 1.8 MMT, currently we are running 3 MMT behind USDA’s forecast. Brazil soybean planting almost wrapped up at 92% complete. The soybean market is showing good carries out to the August contract which is trading at 10.36. New crop 2018 at 10.16.
Wheat: MPLS up 3 KC unchanged
Australian harvest again is disrupted by rain, forecasts look good for drying out fields as they move into a dry pattern. Some experts are cutting Australian wheat production by 1.3 MMT down to 21.6 MMT. China sold 248 TMT of wheat at a state reserve auction today. Russia is expected to raise wheat exports to 35.3 MMT up 1.3 MMT from previous expectations. Currently on MPLS march wheat sits at 6.29. 7 cent carry to the july contract. From July to new crop we inverse 6 cents. NC mpls wheat trading at 6.30 on the September contract.