November 30, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
CORN – As of 7:45 – down 1
After a firmer day yesterday in the corn trade, we are seeing some light profit-taking and month-end position squaring from the funds. Large spec funds are short about 256k contracts. Ethanol production the week was down 8k barrels/day and stocks were up 147k barrels. Overnight weakness could also be attributed to long-term rains in the Argentine forecast, although they are still rather dry in major production areas (but the rest of South America seems to have favorable conditions). As the weather forecast plays out within the next 30 days, we will most likely know if there is going to be a South American weather scare or not. The story continues…
SOYBEANS – As of 7:45 – down 5
Yesterday saw a mixed trade in the bean market with a 7c trading range and we ended down ½ a cent on the nearby January chart. Overnight follow-through selling can be attributed to lower soymeal, as products have been real drivers for the soybean market. We can still find support from a dry Argentina and what seems to be a black hole of demand from China. Open interest increased yesterday on beans, meal, and oil. The US Gulf is becoming more competitive vs. Brazil on the export market. Technically, we can find underlying support at the 50-day moving average of $9.86 and the 100-day moving average of $9.82. Overhead resistance is at the magical $10.00 threshold.
WHEAT – As of 7:45 – Mpls down 3, KC up 2
Mostly routine news in the wheat market. Yesterday’s trade saw a bounce higher after contract lows two days in a row on the KC market. Minny continues to trade around the $6.00 number. Iraq bought 100k MT of hard red wheat yesterday from the US and Australia on a tender. Right now it is a guessing game as to acreage for planted winter wheat and planned acreage for spring wheat. Rumors of more HRS in North Dakota next year… We will get acreage numbers again from USDA on January 12.