November 15, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
The December contract found a new low in the overnight trade at 3.37. Next support level could be the September contract low at 3.28 it was hit on August 31st. Yesterday the USDA announced a flash sale, 133,096 MT of corn to an unknown destination in the 2017/2018 marketing year. The funds again were active sellers of an estimated 5k contracts again yesterday. Spread to the March firmed slightly. There is a 12 ¾ carry. Ethanol production estimates will come out today. With USDA projecting 2.5 BBU carryout and no update until January the upside feels quite limited. I think we can expected sideways choppy trade going into the new year.
Beans: up 3
The January contract now below all major moving averages at 9.71. October NOPA crush comes out today, estimated range is 160-169 MB. Look for that to set the tone here in the short term. The funds were estimated sellers of 5k bean contracts, 1k soybean meal contracts, and 3k soybean oil contracts. China’s COFCO forecasts that China will import 100 MMT in 2017/2018, USDA at 97 MMT. The market closely monitoring SA, Argy weather still looking dry, stay tuned.
Wheat: MPLS up 2 KC down 2
MPLS wheat slowly falling back off last week’s rally. Current support level is the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA both sitting at 6.24 ¾ . MPLS has a 14 cent carry from the Dec. to the Mar. contract. KC has a 17 ½ carry from Dec. to Mar. Eastern Australia turns wet, delaying harvest over the next 10 days.