November 14, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn futures hung around new contract lows again yesterday, resisting weakness in the wheat and soy complex. Funds were sellers of an estimated 6k corn contracts. They are sitting very close to a record short position. Inspections were weak yesterday. This is the 6th week in a row corn has underperformed the 5 year average on volume. Analysts believe that it is likely we will miss USDA projections by 2 MMT. Currently the US expects 9.3 MMT shipments smaller than last year. Crop Progress came out yesterday afternoon. Nationwide corn harvest is at 83% TW vs 70% LW, the 5 year average is 91%. Currently Dec 2017 is trading at 3.41, the December 2018 contract is trading at 3.86.
Beans: Up 2
Monday morning the USDA did announce a 135K MT sale to the Philippines for the 2017/2018 marketing year. The January contract crossed 2 major moving averages suffering double digit losses. Poor technical performance, it was the lowest close in 30 days. Funds were credited to be sellers of 8k bean contracts, 4k soybean meal contracts, and 6k soybean oil contracts. As far as export inspections go, commitments for the US are running 2.3 MMT below a year ago. We could very well miss USDA’s mark by 1 MMT. Brazils bean export shipments were 833 TMT last week. This same week last year they had 0 export shipments.
Wheat: MPLS unch KC down 2
Yesterday the funds were sellers of an estimated 7k contracts. Wheat demand is poor, with plenty of world supply. Inspections came in on the low end with 301 TMT this week. This same week one year ago we shipped 279 TMT. So far we are slightly behind on USDA’s projections. US WW crop conditions came in 54% G/E vs 55% LW and 59% being the 5 year average. The trade will be watching West Kansas for any developmental problems because of regional dryness.