November 13, 2017
Morning Market Insight
Corn: Down 1
The December contract testing those new contract lows on a lack of fresh supportive news after last week’s USDA report where we are now looking at the largest carryout since 1987 at 2.48 bbu. Now the market will switch to looking at supply and monitoring SA weather for the next couple months until we get our next and final January production update. Brazil’s 15 day forecast is calling for some much needed rain in their droughty regions. Brazil is estimated to have 49% of their corn planted. The next 7 days looks wet for Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Wisconsin, slowing the tail end of harvest progress. The US is estimated to be 80-85% harvested in this afternoons USDA update. Export inspections come out at 10 AM and are expected to be weak.
Beans: Down 3
It is tough to find supportive news as Brazil gets favorable growing weather this week. Brazil is estimated to be 50% done with planting. Going forward the market will be watching SA weather, especially Argentina, who has been suffering from dry planting conditions with nothing helpful in the forecast. It isn’t considered an issue yet, but the next few weeks will determine early crop health. China plans to import more SA beans. They are expected to import 7 MMT vs 4 MMT last year. The January contract is holding support at 9.83, the 50 DMA. With the 100 and 200 DMA’s to be the next support level if we were to breach 9.83. We need 39.6 MBU of shipped beans in the 10 AM report. Last week was 91.5 MBU
Wheat: MPLS down 7. KC down 5
Selling pressure because of a large balance sheet and a stronger US dollar weighs on prices. HRW acres are expected to be down this year. Morocco bought 30k MT of US soft wheat. Jordan is tendering for 100,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat. In today’s inspections report we need 19.3 MBU. Last week we had 10.4 MBU.